neljapäev, 13. juuni 2013

12 murrangulist tehnoloogiat, mis muudavad aastaks 2025 eluviisi, äritegevust ja maailma majandust

Teateid uutest tehnoloogiatest tuleb paljudest valdkondadest ja peaaegu igaüht neist nimetatakse läbimurdeks. Samas ei muuda iga uus tehnoloogia äritegevust ja ühiskonda, kuid mõned neist võivad tõesti olla murrangulised ning muuta oluliselt nii majandust kui ka eluviisi.

McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) selgitas põhjaliku analüüsi käigus välja 12 tehnoloogiat, mis võivad viia tõeliselt suurte muutusteni. Raportis „Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy“ vaadeldakse ka seda, mil moel need tehnoloogiad võivad meie maailma muuta ja antakse soovitusi, kuidas nende väljakutsetega toime tulla.

Murranguliste tehnoloogiate leidmiseks analüüsiti enam kui sadat tehnoloogiat, mida hinnati järgmiste kriteeriumide alusel:
  • tehnoloogia areneb kiiresti ja on olulisi läbimurdeid;
  • mõju potentsiaalne ulatus on lai (mõjutab paljusid ettevõtteid, seadmeid, tooteid, teenuseid);
  • märkimisväärne majanduslik mõju (kasumile, investeeringutele, tööjõukulule jne);
  • murranguline mõju majandusele (muudab elu- ja tööviisi, loob uusi võimalusi ettevõtetele, annab riikidele eeliseid ja mõjutab majanduskasvu).

Uuringus välja toodud 12 tehnoloogiat ei ole ainukesed, mis võivad tuua murrangulisi muutusi, kuid autorite arvates ei oma ülejäänud järgmisel kümnendil sama suurt ja pöördelist majanduslikku mõju. Samas ei välistata võimalust ootamatuks teaduslikuks läbimurdeks või teisteks faktoriteks, nagu uued poliitikad jmt.

Uuringu autorid rõhutavad, et allpool toodud tehnoloogiad toovad suurt kasu, kuid suured on ka väljakutsed. Kui ettevõtjad ja poliitikud ootavad seni, kuni nende tehnoloogiate mõju on juba täies jõus, võib olla liiga hilja, et saada kasu ja reageerida tagajärgedele. Kuigi kohased reaktsioonid erinevad sõltuvalt huvigruppidest ja tehnoloogiatest, on MGI toonud välja mõned soovitused, kuidas ettevõtted ja valitsused võiksid nende tehnoloogiate mõjude jaoks ette valmistuda.

Soovitused ettevõtjatele:
Murrangulised tehnoloogiad võivad ettevõtete olukorda dramaatiliselt muuta, luues täiesti uusi tooteid ja teenuseid ning muutes väärtusahelaid tootjate vahel või tootjate ja tarbijate vahel. Organisatsioonidel on vaja tihti kasutada uusi ärimudeleid, et midagi sellest väärtusest kätte saada. Ettevõtete juhid peavad valmistuma paljudeks erinevateks stsenaariumideks, loobuma senisest arusaamast konkurentsi ja riski suhtes ja otsima vanade mudelite asemele uusi. Samuti peavad organisatsioonid hoidma oma töötajate oskusi ajakohastena ning otsima tasakaalupunkti uute tehnoloogiate potentsiaalse kasu ja riski vahel.

Soovitused poliitikutele:
Poliitikud saavad kasutada uusi tehnoloogiaid enda ees seisvate väljakutsetega toime tulemiseks (nt kasutades Asjade internetti infrastruktuuri toimimise parandamiseks). Töö iseloom jätkab muutumist ja see nõuab tugevaid haridus- ja ümberõppe programme. Vastamaks väljakutsetele, mida uued tehnoloogiad kaasa toovad, saavad poliitikud kasutada neid samu uusi tehnoloogiaid, luues näiteks uusi haridus- ja koolitussüsteeme Mobiilse interneti abil. Mobiilne internet võib aidata ka avalikke teenuseid paremini ja efektiivsemalt osutada. Uute tehnoloogiate tegeliku mõju hindamiseks võiksid valitsused mõelda ka teistele mõõtmissüsteemidele, mis suudavad hinnata enamat kui ainult mõju SKT-le.  




1. Mobiilne internet
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 3.7-10.8 triljonit USD aastas.

Üleüldine ühendatus ja aplikatsioonide kiire levik võimaldavad kasutajatel oma igapäevaseid asju ajada täiesti uuel moel. Üle 1 miljardi inimese juba omavad nutitelefone ja tablettarvuteid. USAs toimub üle 30% otsingutest ja 40% sotsiaalsest meediast läbi mobiilse interneti. Ennustatakse, et aastaks 2015 ületab juhtmevaba internetiühendus juhtmega internetti. Mobiilne internet areneb kiiresti koos intuitiivsete kasutajaliideste ja ja uute formaatidega, sh kantavad seadmed. Samuti kasutatakse mobiilse interneti aplikatsioone nii ettevõtlus- kui riigisektoris, mis võimaldab osutada paljusid teenuseid efektiivsemalt ja tõsta töötajate produktiivsust. Arengumaades võib mobiilne internet anda miljarditele inimesele võimaluse olla ühenduses maailmaga.

2. Teadmismahuka töö automatiseerimine
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 5.2-6.7 triljonit USD aastas.

Edusammud tehisintellekti, masinõppe ja loomulike kasutajaliideste (nt hääletuvastus) alal võimaldavad automatiseerida mitmeid teadmismahuka töö ülesandeid, mille andmist masinatele on seni peetud võimatuks või ebapraktiliseks. Näiteks võivad mõned arvutid vastata struktureerimata küsimustele, nii et ilma spetsiaalse koolituseta töötajad või kliendid võivad iseseisvalt informatsiooni hankida. See loob uued võimalused teadmistemahuka töö organiseerimiseks ja teostamiseks.

3. Asjade internet
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 2.7-6.2 triljonit USD aastas.

Kiiresti on levimas sensorite ja täiturmehhanismide lisamine masinatele ja teistele füüsilistele objektidele, et tuua need ühendatud maailma. Asjade internet võimaldab optimeerida protsesse tootmises ja logistikas, kasutatad efektiivselt loodusressursse (nt toodete liikumise jälgimine tehases, niiskuse mõõtmine põllul, veevoolu jälgimine veevärgis jmt.) Samuti on asjade internetti võimalik kasutada krooniliste haigete seisundi jälgimisel ja seeläbi nende tervise parandamisel.

4. Pilvetehnoloogia
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 1.7-8.2 triljonit USD aastas.

Pilvetehnoloogia võimaldab minimaalse kohaliku tarkvara või töötlemisvõimsusega edastada interneti kaudu aplikatsioone või teenuseid. Pilvetehnoloogia teeb võimalikuks interneti-põhiste teenuste plahvatusliku kasvu ja võimaldab paranadada ka IT firmade ja valitsuste ökonoomikat, andes neile suurema paindlikkuse ja kiirema reageerimisvõime. Pilvetehnoloogia võimaldab täiesti uusi ärimudeleid, sh igasugused „pay-as-you-go“ teenusmudeleid.

5. Arenenud robootika
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 1.7-4.5 triljonit USD aastas.

Arenenud robotid on kompaktsemad ja kergemini kohandatavad, kui möödunud kümnenditel kasutatud tööstusrobotid. Neil on nägemine, tehisintellekt, võime suhelda teiste seadmetega, sensorid ja täiturmehhanismid. Need robotid võivad töötada kõrvuti inimestega, nendega on lihtsam suhelda ja neid on töötajatel lihtsam programmeerida. Arenenud robotid võivad võtta inimestelt üle rohkem ülesandeid tööstuses, aga ka teeninduses nagu näiteks puhastamine ja hooldus. See tehnoloogia võimaldab kasutada uut tüüpi roboteid ka meditsiinis – näiteks võimaldavad robotid teha operatsioone väiksemate vigastustega, aga paljutõotavad on ka robootilised-proteesid ja eksoskeletid.

6. Autonoomsed ja peaaegu autonoomsed sõidukid
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 0.2-1.9 triljonit USD aastas.

Juba praegu on võimalik ehitada autosid, laevu ja lennukeid, mis on kas täiesti või peaaegu autonoomsed (nt droon-lennukid ja Google’i isesõitvad autod).  Masin-nägemise tehnoloogia, tehisintellekt, sensorid ja täiturmehhanismid, mis muudavad need masinad võimalikuks, arenevad kiiresti. Järgneval kümnendil on võimalik odavaid ja turul kättesaadavaid droone ja veesõidukeid kasutada mitmel otstarbel. Autonoomsed autod võivad kaasa tuua revolutsiooni maanteetranspordis. Lisaks sellele omavad suurt väärtust ka juhti abistavad juhtimis-, pidurdus- ja kokkupõrget vältivad süsteemid. Autonoomsete autode kasutamisel suureneb turvalisus, väheneb CO2 emissioon, autojuhtidel on rohkem vaba või tööaega (käed vabad juhtimine) ning suureneb ka produktiivsus veonduses.

7. Järgmise põlvkonna geneetika
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 0.7-1.6 triljonit USD aastas.

Järgmise põlvkonna geneetika seob geneetika ja suurte andmete analüüsimise võimekuse. Suhteliselt odavaid geneetilise analüüsi seadmeid on võimalik kasutada rutiinseks diagnostikaks, mis võimaldab leida sobiva ravi patsiendile. Järgmine samm on sünteetiline bioloogia – võime kohandada organisme DNA-d ”kirjutades”. Need saavutused mõjutavad oluliselt meditsiini ja põllumajandust.

8. Energia salvestamine
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 0.1- 0.6 triljonit USD aastas.

Energia salvestamise tehnoloogiaid, nagu liitium-ioon patareid ja kütuse-elemendid juba kasutatakse elektri- ja hübriidautodes. Tuleval kümnendil võivad uued energiasalvestuse tehnoloogiad muuta elektriautode hinna konkurentsivõimeliseks, tuua elektri arengumaade eraldatud nurkadesse ja parandada elektrivõrgu efektiivsust. Praegu puudub elekter ca 1,2 miljardil inimesel. Arengud energia salvestamisel (sh pumbatud vesi või kokkupressitud gaas) võivad aidata kaasa hajutatud elektritootmise kasvule, võimaldavad päikese- ja tuuleenergia tootjatel hakkama saada tippkoormusega ja aitavad alandada ka kulusid.

9. 3D printimine
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 0.2- 0.6 triljonit USD aastas.

Seni on 3D printimist kasutanud peamiselt tootedisainerid ja lihtsalt huvilised ning lisaks on vähesel määral ka tööstuslikke kasutusalasid. 3D printimise seadmete kvaliteet aga paraneb pidevalt ja kasutatavate materjalide hulk suureneb ning nii materjalide kui ka printerite hinnad alanevad kiiresti. See toob järjest lähemale aja, mil 3D printimine võidakse kiiresti omaks võtta tavatarbijate poolt, aga veel enam leiab see kasutust tööstuses. 3D printimise puhul võib ideest väga kiiresti saada valmis toode ja jäävad vahele mitmed traditsioonilise tööstuse etapid. Kuna 3D printimine võimaldab toota vastavalt tellimusele, mõjutab see tarneahelaid ja varuosadega varustamist, mis on tootjate peamised kuluallikad. Samuti võib 3D printimine vähendada materjali raiskamist ja luua objekte, mida on raske või võimatu traditsioonilisel moel toota. Lisaks tööstusele on 3D printimine (bioprintimine) leidnud rakendust ka meditsiinis - teadlased on suutnud juba organeid printida.  

10. Uued materjalid
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 0.2- 0.5 triljonit USD aastas.

Paari viimase kümnendi jooksul on teadlased suutnud luua imeliste omadustega materjale. Näiteks on loodud targad materjalid, mis suudavad end ise parandada või puhastada, mäluga metalle, mis suudavad võtta tagasi algse kuju, pieso-elektrilist keraamikat ja kristalle, mis muudavad surve energiaks. Erilist tähelepanu väärivad nanomaterjalid, mis on eriti märkimisväärselt arenenud, millel on palju kasutusvaldkondi ja mis võivad pikas perspektiivis anda eriti suurt majanduslikku mõju. Näiteks võimaldavad grafeenist ja süsinikust nanotorud luua uut tüüpi ekraane ning väga efektiivseid patareisid ja päikeseelemente. Ravimitööstused on saavutamas edu nano-osakeste kasutamisel ravimite viimisel täpselt vajalikku kohta.  

11. Uued nafta- ja gaasipuurimistehnoloogiad
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 0.1- 0.5 triljonit USD aastas.

Tehnoloogiad, mis võimaldavad koguda gaasi ja naftat ebatraditsioonilistest kohtadest, võimaldavad võtta kasutusele uut tüüpi varusid. Horisontaalne puurimine ja hüdrauliline purustamine võimaldavad ligi pääseda varudele, mida seni ei olnud majanduslikult mõistlik kasutusele võtta. Nafta- ja keemiatööstusele on nende tehnoloogiate arengul eriti suur mõju.

12. Taastuvenergia
Majanduslik mõju aastal 2025: 0.2- 0.3 triljonit USD aastas.

Taastuvenergia allikad nagu päike, tuul, hüdroelekter ja ookeani lained lubavad lõpmatut energiat, mis ei kahjusta keskkonda. Eriti kiiresti areneb päikeseenergeetika. Kahel viimasel kümnendil on päikeseenergia tootmise hind langenud ca 10 korda. Samas suureneb aga taastuvenergia tootmises kiiresti tuuleenergia osakaal. Päikese- ja tuuleenergia kasutuselevõtt arenenud maades nagu USA ja EL toimub üha kiirenevas tempos. Mis veelgi tähtsam, Hiinal, Indial jt tärkava majandusega riikidel on suured plaanid päikese- ja tuuleenergia kasutuselevõtuks, mis võimaldab jätkuvat kiiret kasvu, vähendades samas saastamisega seotud probleeme.  

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