Kolmapäev, 29. mai 2013

fs: Kuidas 3D printimine võib tuleviku majandust muuta

Bloomberg View: ”Murrang võib olla ohtlik ja hirmuäratav.
See võib viia ka imeliste uute ettevõtete ja eluviisideni.
Ja mis kõige tähtsam – see on vältimatu, nii et asuge
selle etteotsa, kuni veel saate.”


Viimasel ajal on Eesti ajakirjanduses järjest enam räägitud sellest, mida kõike on võimalik 3D printeriga valmistada (vaata näiteks Delfi teemalehte või Fututoa varasemat postitust). Veebilehelt Shapeways.com võib näha, mida inimesed juba praegu valmistavad ja müüvad ning Äripäevast võib lugeda, et 3D printereid tootvate ettevõtete aktsiad on viimastel aastatel kõvasti kerkinud (näiteks Stratasys Ltd. aktsia hind on aastaga tõusnud 85%).

Üsna vähe räägitakse aga sellest, milliseid muutusi 3D printimise areng meie elus ja majanduses võib kaasa tuua. Bloomberg View artiklite sarjas, millest allpool lühike kokkuvõte, püütakse käsitleda mitte ainult seda, kuidas 3D printimise tehnoloogia võib muuta meie elu paremaks või halvemaks, vaid ka seda, kuidas selleks tehnoloogiliseks revolutsiooniks ette valmistuda.

Tootmine, tarneahelad ja töökohad

Kuigi suurem osa 3D printimise turust on olnud seotud prototüüpide loomisega, oli Wholers Report 2013 andmetel 2012. aastal juba 28,2% seotud lõpptoodete detailide tootmisega. Ettevõtted kasutavad üha enam 3D printimist oma vana tehnoloogia täiendusena. Järgmise generatsiooni lennukite tootmisel kavatseb General Electric kasutada 3D printeri abil toodetud pihusteid ja mõnekümne aasta pärast võib lennukite tootmine toimuda vaiksetes tehastes, kus inimeste asemel töötavad 3D printerid.

Paljude ettevõtete jaoks on selle tehnoloogia loogika juba selge. Esimene eelis on efektiivsus. Kuna 3D printerid ehitavad objekti üles kiht-kihilt, on võimalik vältida materjali raiskamist, mis traditsioonilise tootmise puhul võib olla kuni 90%. Printerid võivad töötada ööd ja päevad ilma järelevalveta ning võivad printida seotud osi, vähendades montaaži vajadust. 3D printerite abil tootmine võimaldab ettevõtetel lühendada tarneahelat, saata tooted koheselt ükskõik millisesse printerisse ja teha kiiresti varuosi. Ja 3D printerid suudavad luua sama keerukaid esemeid, kui tavalised seadmed.

Kiireks prototüüpimiseks on 3D printimine juba praegu kasutusel sellistes valdkondades nagu autotööstus, meditsiin, lennundus ja koduelektroonika. Disaineritel ei ole vaja oodata, kuni vajalikud detailid on kohale toimetatud ja nad ei vaja kõrge kvalifikatsiooniga oskustööliste abi. Keerulise eseme printimine nõuab samasuguseid oskusi ja maksab sama palju, kui sama materjalihulgaga lihtsa eseme valmistamine.

Praegu on printerid veel aeglased ja materjal, millest prinditakse, on kallis ja ebaühtlase kvaliteediga. Tööstuse arenedes võib tellimuse järgi printimine aga vähendada vajadust koosteliinide ja ladude järele, lühendada tarneahelaid ja vähendada jäätmeid.

Kõike eelnevat arvestades on tõenäoline, et kesk-pikas perspektiivis kaotavad paljud inimesed tänu 3D printimisele oma töö. Eriti tööstuses, kus konveieril masinaid ja seadmeid kokku pannakse. Lõpuks aitab uus tehnoloogia tõenäoliselt uusi töökohti luua, kuid töö kaotanud töölised vajavad abi uues situatsioonis kohanemiseks.

Kui personaalsed 3D printerid muutuvad odavamaks, lihtsustavad need leiutajate võimalust hakata tootjateks. Toodete kohandamine vastavalt tarbija vajadustele ei tekita peaaegu mingeid kulusid, kuna printereid ei ole vaja uute toote printimiseks ümber seadistada. Väike-ettevõtjad ei pea müüma suurt hulka identseid tooteid, vaid võivad printida (toota) vastavalt tellimusele, mis vähendab kohaletoimetamise kulu ja aitab vältida kulusid ladustamisele. Nokitsejad saavad valmistada oma asjadele varuosi, leiutada ja müüa tellija vajaduste järgi toodetud tooteid internetis ja seeläbi luua uusi ettevõtteid. Tellijale kohandatud tooted ei ole varsti enam erand, vaid norm.

Optimistid loodavad, et tulevikus on 3D printer igaühel kodus ja teeb kõike, mida vaja, vastavalt tellimusele. Tõenäolisem on stsenaarium, kus inimesed kasutavad printimiskeskust, et lasta valmistada toodet, mille disaini nad ostsid või ise tegid. Just selle strateegia põhjal teevad koostööd näiteks Staples Inc. ja Mcor Technologies Ltd. 

Intellektuaalne omand ja turvalisus

3D printeri abil on võimalik järgi teha nii firmakaupu ja relvi kui ka raha, ravimeid, võtmeid jmt. Professor Jonathan Zittrain Harvardi Ülikoolist soovitab probleemide ennetamiseks ühendada kõik 3D printerid internetti, kus saab kontrollida keelatud tooteid enne nende printimist. See tundub paljutõotav ja võimaldab kaitsta ka intellektuaalset omandit, kuid professor tunnistab ka ise, et see ei pruugi olla hea idee, kuna iga lahenduse puhul leitakse kolm uut, et sellest kõrvale hiilida. Pealegi levib 3D printimine nii kiiresti, et sellise süsteemi rakendamine on ebarealistlik. Professor Hod Lipson Cornell’i Ülikoolist soovitab näiteks relvade printimise keelamise asemel parandada järelevalvet laskemoona üle. Võtmete printijate vastu aitaks näiteks biomeetriliste andmete kasutamine. Kui retseptirohtude printimine muutub laiemalt kättesaadavaks, peaks need printerid programmeerima nii, et väärkasutus oleks võimatu.

Intellektuaalse omandi kaitsega tekib hulgaliselt probleeme. Suur hulk tooteid muutub võltsitavaks. Pop-kultuuri esemeid juba tehakse järgi. Ja ettevõtted,  mida see uus tehnoloogia ähvardab, püüavad uustulnukaid eos likvideerida või lobbi ja kohtuasjade abil põranda alla suruda. Kohtuasjad võivad aga kujuneda kalliks ja nagu näitavad muusikakompaniide kogemused, on neist vähe kasu piraatluse tõkestamisel. 3D printimise puhul ei ole aga enam tegemist ainult suurfirmade ja üksikisikute vahelise võitlusega. Kui üksikisik leiutab midagi, siis on võimalik, et ka tema leiutist kopeeritakse enne, kui ta mingit kasu saab. Ja üksikettevõtjal ei ole raha, et oma õigusi kohtus kaitsta.

Uuele olukorrale tuleks läheneda paindlikult ja loovalt. Näiteks eksperimenteeritakse Virginia Tehnikaülikoolis 3D printeriga valmistatud materjalile kvant-punktide lisamisega. See võimaldaks ettevõtetel võltsimise vältimiseks tooteid märgistada. Filmitööstus võiks otsida vastastikku kasulikke lahendusi, pidades leiutajatega läbirääkimisi litsentsi andmise osas või siis andes üldise litsents, mis lubab leiutajatel autorile viidates teha tooteid, kui autorile antakse mingi osa kasumist.

Samuti tekitab probleeme toodete turvalisus. Turule võib paisata miljoneid tooteid lapsevankritest rämpstoidu ja proteesideni, mille kvaliteet on äärmiselt kõikuv. Kes vastutab, kui need tooted kedagi vigastavad või ei tööta?

3D printimine meditsiinis on juba erutav ja hirmutav – on võimalik luua kuulmisaparaate, jäsemete ja hambaproteese. Haiglad prindivad patsientide organite täpseid koopiaid, et planeerida operatsioone. Teadlased prindivad inimrakke, et luua luu- ja veresoonte kudet. Ei lähe palju aega, kui ollakse suutelised printima organeid. See kõik on paljutõotav, kuid mis juhtub, kui kehaosade printimine muutub rutiiniks? Meil puudub sellise maailma kirjeldamiseks isegi sõnavara.

Valitsuste roll

Kuna 3D printimine on alles lapsekingades, peaks valitsused selle reguleerimisega olema ettevaatlikud, kuid võiks teha mõndagi, et üleminekut lihtsustada.

USA, kus on ca 40% maailma 3D printeritest, astub samme, et jääda sellel alal liidriks ka tulevikus. Möödunud aastal asutati seal riigi ja erasektori koostöös spetsiaalne instituut (National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute), mille eesmärgiks on koolitada selle uue tehnoloogia jaoks sobivat tööjõudu, koostada tehnikakoolide õppekavasid, pakkuda ettevõtetele lehekülgi ja varustust oma ideede katsetamiseks ning toetada uuringuid, mis aitaksid kodumaistel varustajatel tööstusele vajalikke seadmeid toota.

Arvestades 3D printimise võimalusi, oleks vaja hakata mõtlema sertifitseerimise protsessi parandamisele. Paljudes valdkondades nõutakse toote minimaalse muudatuse puhul uut sertifikaati. Kui tellija soovi järgi tehtud toodang muutub tavaliseks, peaks paindlikum lähenemine keskenduma protsessile, mitte tootele – sertifitseeritud seadmega ja vastavalt läbipaistvale tootmisjuhendile valmistatud toode peaks saama heakskiidu. Leiutajad saaksid kasu ka näiteks seadusandlusest, mis takistaks ettevõtetel kokku kogumast nende leiutiste patente, mida nad ei kavatsegi turule viia, kuid millest loodavad kohtuvaidluste kaudu siiski kasu saada.

Tööjõud on vaja ette valmistada ajastuks, kus aina rohkem ülesandeid jääb masinatele. Töötajatele tuleb teha kergemaks uute oskuste omandamine ja uute ettevõtete alustamine, investeerides enam haridusse, toetades tööturu paindlikkust ja julgustades innovatsiooni. 3D printimine võib lõpuks luua palju töökohti, nagu teisedki murrangulised tehnoloogiad on teinud. Pole aga kindel, et see nii läheb ja üleminek on igal juhul valulik. Kindlasti on loodavad töökohad väga erinevad tänastest.

Lõpetuseks

Atlantic Council’i raport (oktoober 2011) ennustab, et 3D printimine võib tuua kaasa sama suuri muutusi, kui arvutid ja internet. Bloomberg View on samuti arvamusel, et 3D printimine muudab maailma oluliselt teistsuguseks, ja kui valitakse õiged poliitikad, siis paremaks maailmaks.

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